"Trump Trade" and "Harris Trade": As the election approaches, who have you bet on in your portfolio?
2024-09-14
After the public debate, the market began to shift from the "Trump Trade" to the "Harris Trade." The clean energy sector (lithium mines, photovoltaics, etc.),
AI growth sector (large models, CPO, etc.) rebounded, and the domestic export sector (all-terrain vehicles, construction-related tools, injection molding machines,
export transformers to the United States, etc.) also showed signs of activity. Their economic policy positions each have their emphases,
reflecting different economic development philosophies and policy orientations.
Trump's economic policy is centered on "America First," focusing on promoting U.S. economic growth and the revival of manufacturing
through tax cuts, increased tariffs, and monetary policy adjustments. He proposed further reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% and
imposing tariffs as high as 25% on imported goods from countries like China. In addition, Trump strongly supports the traditional energy
industry and promises to relax regulations on the oil and gas industry. These policy positions may stimulate short-term U.S. economic
growth and employment to some extent, but they may also exacerbate fiscal deficits and international trade frictions, while also putting
pressure on global supply chain companies. The core of the "Trump Trade" lies in betting on traditional industries and large-scale fiscal stimulus.
The latest research report from Goldman Sachs points out that if Trump's tax cut policy is implemented, the earnings per share of the S&P 500 index
may increase by about 8%. This expectation directly drives investors' preference for large enterprises, especially multinational companies.
Harris's economic policy tends to favor targeted tax cuts, clean energy investment, and expanding health insurance coverage. Her policy positions
include reducing the living costs of the middle class, improving housing issues, adjusting tax policies, expanding social welfare, and adopting a
multilateral stance on trade issues. Harris plans to raise taxes on high-income individuals and large corporations, increase taxes on the wealthy
and capital gains, while eliminating the tip tax. She has also proposed a series of social welfare policies, such as restoring the child tax credit,
providing up to 12 weeks of paid family leave, etc. Harris's policies may effectively reduce family living costs and improve the quality of life for
middle and low-income groups, but they may also face fiscal expenditure pressures and impacts on corporate innovation and investment enthusiasm.
The core of the "Harris Trade" strategy is betting on clean energy, healthcare reform, and targeted economic stimulus. The latest report from
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that if Harris's clean energy plan is implemented, the proportion of renewable energy in the U.S.
electricity structure may increase from the current 17% to 35% by 2028. This expectation directly drives the rise in clean energy stocks.
JPMorgan Chase's Chief Market Strategist said, "The core of the 'Harris Trade' is long-term sustainable growth. We expect that if Harris is elected,
clean energy ETFs may rise by 20% to 30% within six months after the election. At the same time, medical insurance and medical technology
companies may also benefit from healthcare reform, and their stock prices may rise by 15% to 20%."
Harris Trade may not be well received
American billionaire and hedge fund manager John Paulson recently stated that if the Democratic presidential candidate Harris implements the
proposed tax plan, the financial market will collapse and the economy will fall into recession. [Paulson, 68, entered the hedge fund industry in the 1990s,
and during the subprime mortgage crisis, he shorted about $25 billion in mortgage-backed securities, earning a huge profit of $15 billion for his clients.
He is known as the "God of Wall Street Short" and "The First Hedge Fund Man".]
Paulson explained that if the specific plan of Harris to tax unrealized gains is implemented, the economy could quickly fall into recession.
"If the Biden-Harris team takes office and implements their prepared policies, it will lead to a massive sale of houses, stocks, companies, and art, which could plunge us into a recession immediately."
Paulson predicts that even if Harris is elected, the new government will not continue to do so. It is worth mentioning that sources close to
Harris's campaign team also said that Harris has no intention of taxing unrealized gains, and whether such a plan can pass in Congress is also doubtful.
Correspondingly, Trump also advocated "trickle-down economics" during his first term - to encourage investment and promote economic
development by cutting taxes for businesses and the wealthy, thereby increasing the government's total tax revenue.