At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Powell at 2:30 AM.

On the first day back from the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in Mainland China, the market faces the most uncertain outcome 

of a Federal Reserve meeting since 2007. Wall Street traders are already in the eye of the storm, and tonight is destined to be a sleepless night!

Will it be 50, 25, or no rate cut at all?

50 basis points: For investors, a significant rate cut like 50 basis points could have a positive effect on the market, especially by reducing 

borrowing costs and enhancing the profitability potential of businesses, which is beneficial for growth assets like technology stocks. 

However, too aggressive a rate cut could trigger market concerns about an economic downturn. Given the many uncertainties in the global economy, investors should remain vigilant.

25 basis points: "A 25 basis point rate cut" is best announced at the very last moment. Because after the announcement 

at 2:00 AM on Thursday, there will be a press conference with Powell half an hour later, where he could make some "dovish" remarks to 

soothe the market. But if the "25 basis point rate cut" is revealed before the meeting (during the daytime in China), the market could face a prolonged sell-off.

In fact, Powell himself is inclined towards a 50 basis point rate cut, but from a political standpoint, the mistake of deciding on a 50 basis

 point rate cut could be more serious than the mistake of deciding on a 25 basis point rate cut.

However, it is worth noting that historically, almost every time the Federal Reserve has started a rate cut with 50 basis points, the market 

has performed quite poorly: January 2001 (after the internet bubble), November 2002 (economic recovery slowed down), September 2007 (global financial crisis), and March 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic).

McElligott wrote in the latest report: "When people say, 'Well, 50 basis points is telling the market that the Fed thinks 

there is a big problem with the economy, which could lead to a surge in risk aversion.'"

In fact, those betting on a 25 basis point rate cut and those betting on a 50 basis point rate cut are two different types of people.

Those who think there might be a 50 basis point rate cut are most likely direct participants in the stock market,

 who are worried that monetary policy "falling short" could lead to further declines in the stock market; while 

those who think the rate cut will be 25 basis points are more concerned about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

In the end, we still have to wait for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18th. No matter 

how much the rate is cut, as long as the stock market rises, investors will celebrate — at that time, the magnitude 

of the rate cut will not matter. If the stock market falls, then whether it's 25 or 50, there will likely be a lot of debate.